Oscar 2011: Who WILL Win

Here are my predictions.

• Motion Picture: "The King's Speech" (alt. "The Social Network")
• Director: Tom Hooper - "The King's Speech" (alt. David Fincher - "The Social Network")
• Actor: Colin Firth - "The King's Speech" (alt. James Franco - "127 Hours")
• Actress: Natalie Portman - "Black Swan" (alt. Annette Bening - "The Kids Are All Right")
• Supporting Actor: Christian Bale - "The Fighter" (alt. Geoffrey Rush - "The King's Speech")
• Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo - "The Fighter" (alt. Jacki Weaver - "Animal Kingdom")
• Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Social Network" (alt. "Toy Story 3")
• Best Original Screenplay: "The King's Speech" (alt. "Inception")
• Art Direction: "The King's Speech" (alt. "Inception")
• Cinematography: "True Grit" (alt. "Inception")
• Costume Design: "The King's Speech" (alt. "Alice in Wonderland")
• Film Editing: "The Social Network" (alt. "The King's Speech")
• Makeup: "The Wolfman" (alt. "Barney's Version")
• Original Score: "The King's Speech" (alt. "Inception")
• Original Song: "We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3" (alt. "If I Rise" from "127 Hours")
• Sound Editing: "Inception" (alt. "True Grit")
• Sound Mixing: "Inception" (alt. "True Grit")
• Visual Effects: "Inception" (alt. "Hereafter")
• Animated Feature Film: "Toy Story 3" (alt. "How to Train Your Dragon")
• Foreign Language Film: "In a Better World" (alt. "Biutiful")
• Documentary: "Exit through the Gift Shop" (alt. "Waste Land")
• Documentary Short: "Strangers No More" (alt. "Killing in the Name")
• Short Film (Animated): "Madagascar, a Journey Diary" (alt. "Day & Night")
• Short Film: "God of Love" (alt. "Na Wewe")

A lot of these seem like locks, but there are always at least one or two surprises. I feel more uncertain about many of my alternates than I do my actual picks. Tomorrow, I'll post how I did and finally, my top films of 2010. 

My tally:
"The King's Speech" - 7

"Inception" - 3

"The Fighter" - 2

"The Social Network" - 2

"Toy Story 3" - 2

"Black Swan" - 1

"Exit through the Gift Shop" - 1

"God of Love" - 1

"In a Better World" - 1

"Madagascar, a Journey Diary" - 1

"Strangers No More" - 1

"True Grit" - 1

"The Wolfman" - 1